Why Not Both - The Twilight of Their Careers Zone
Dear Major League General Manager,
Submitted for your approval:
Two 34 year old pitchers. One is under contract with your baseball club and is currently projected as the fifth starter. The other is a free agent who prefers your club over the alternatives. However, this veteran wants a guaranteed place in your rotation. With both pitchers wearing your team's uniforms the cost to the franchise this season is $18,500,000. By rejecting the free agent you pocket $10,000,000 as savings, but will be resigned to using the fifth starter who has a lesser track-record at the major league level.
Pitcher Under Contract- 1 time All-Star - (cost: $8,500,000)
Career statistics: 85-84, 4.34 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 1.39 WHIP
Last year's statistics: 12-9, 4.66 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 1.53 WHIP (183 IP)
Free Agent Pitcher - 3 time All-Star - (cost $10,000,000)
Career statistics: 159-93, 3.21 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.19 WHIP
Last year's statistics: 9-10, 3.69 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.33 WHIP (139 IP)
Immediately the most significant information to be ascertained is the decline in the free agent's numbers last season. They were far below his career averages and the lack of innings pitched indicates an injury. There is a risk that his career may be derailed, and the $10 million could be lost. But injuries can be inflicted on any major leaguer not named Cal Ripken Jr. Most players who have established quality careers survive the downturns and experience a continuance of their success. The pitcher under contract had no injury to blame, yet his statistics still remain inferior to the free agent's. This resembles the actual argument defined in the soccer expression, "form is temporary, class is permanent."
Significant financial risk may require more than the wisdom of the British. I'm sure there's a Falklands joke there, but honestly who cares about the Falklands? Oh wait. Argentina, that's who. Back to relevance, the decline in innings pitched may be a deciding factor. You could be hesitant to be the man who risked $10 million for an injured arm. But ask yourself this: are you examining the full picture or are you merely blinded by the previous 162 games?
Pitcher Under Contract
Innings pitched 2004-2011: 215, 210, 211, 152, 34, 0, 202, 183, total postseason 19
Total: 1226
Free Agent Pitcher
Innings pitched 2004-2011: 241, 220, 212, 208, 181, 211, 139, total postseason 72
Total: 1479
What is not apparent in this breakdown is that both players experienced significant downturns the season after they threw more than 17 post-season innings. That is not an uncommon problem encountered by players of any level. That fact, combined with the historic totals of the free agent, would indicate the previous season was an anomaly.
Obviously choosing the free agent comes with consequences. The pitcher under contract cannot be moved. You are on the hook for $8.5 million, and an additional cost of $10 million will not allow you freedom to make trading deadline maneuvers.
On the other side of the equation, it would be prudent to consider the health of your current five-man rotation which features a pitcher only months removed from Tommy John surgery, a youngster who can't pitch on the road, a 37 year-old attempting to throw four consecutive 190 inning seasons for the first time in his career, and a starter who missed time due to injury in two of the last three seasons.
Your franchise is one of the most successful teams of the last decade and in the history of Major League Baseball. However it will be changing managers and pitching coaches for the first time in sixteen years. None of your projected starting rotations in recent memory has survived a complete season. Is peace of mind worth $10 million?
Submitted for your approval:
Two 34 year old pitchers. One is under contract with your baseball club and is currently projected as the fifth starter. The other is a free agent who prefers your club over the alternatives. However, this veteran wants a guaranteed place in your rotation. With both pitchers wearing your team's uniforms the cost to the franchise this season is $18,500,000. By rejecting the free agent you pocket $10,000,000 as savings, but will be resigned to using the fifth starter who has a lesser track-record at the major league level.
Pitcher Under Contract- 1 time All-Star - (cost: $8,500,000)
Career statistics: 85-84, 4.34 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 1.39 WHIP
Last year's statistics: 12-9, 4.66 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 1.53 WHIP (183 IP)
Free Agent Pitcher - 3 time All-Star - (cost $10,000,000)
Career statistics: 159-93, 3.21 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.19 WHIP
Last year's statistics: 9-10, 3.69 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.33 WHIP (139 IP)
Immediately the most significant information to be ascertained is the decline in the free agent's numbers last season. They were far below his career averages and the lack of innings pitched indicates an injury. There is a risk that his career may be derailed, and the $10 million could be lost. But injuries can be inflicted on any major leaguer not named Cal Ripken Jr. Most players who have established quality careers survive the downturns and experience a continuance of their success. The pitcher under contract had no injury to blame, yet his statistics still remain inferior to the free agent's. This resembles the actual argument defined in the soccer expression, "form is temporary, class is permanent."
Significant financial risk may require more than the wisdom of the British. I'm sure there's a Falklands joke there, but honestly who cares about the Falklands? Oh wait. Argentina, that's who. Back to relevance, the decline in innings pitched may be a deciding factor. You could be hesitant to be the man who risked $10 million for an injured arm. But ask yourself this: are you examining the full picture or are you merely blinded by the previous 162 games?
Pitcher Under Contract
Innings pitched 2004-2011: 215, 210, 211, 152, 34, 0, 202, 183, total postseason 19
Total: 1226
Free Agent Pitcher
Innings pitched 2004-2011: 241, 220, 212, 208, 181, 211, 139, total postseason 72
Total: 1479
What is not apparent in this breakdown is that both players experienced significant downturns the season after they threw more than 17 post-season innings. That is not an uncommon problem encountered by players of any level. That fact, combined with the historic totals of the free agent, would indicate the previous season was an anomaly.
Obviously choosing the free agent comes with consequences. The pitcher under contract cannot be moved. You are on the hook for $8.5 million, and an additional cost of $10 million will not allow you freedom to make trading deadline maneuvers.
On the other side of the equation, it would be prudent to consider the health of your current five-man rotation which features a pitcher only months removed from Tommy John surgery, a youngster who can't pitch on the road, a 37 year-old attempting to throw four consecutive 190 inning seasons for the first time in his career, and a starter who missed time due to injury in two of the last three seasons.
Your franchise is one of the most successful teams of the last decade and in the history of Major League Baseball. However it will be changing managers and pitching coaches for the first time in sixteen years. None of your projected starting rotations in recent memory has survived a complete season. Is peace of mind worth $10 million?
Comments