A New Coach, Great Expectations
It is the worst of times for many coachless franchises. Weeks of debate will rile the tempers of unsettled fan bases as managements search for new blood to pilot their sinking steamships. Young coordinators and old retreads will cycle through interviews. Soon a hiring will replace poor sentiments with hope and rebirth. Let downs will inevitably follow.
This much you must remember, no NFL coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Additionally, no NFL coach has won a Super Bowl beyond his first or second coaching jobs. This fact is of equal importance. These details must be distinctly understood, or nothing informative can come of the stats I am going to relate. This is not a tale of redemption, nor a story of regained youth. The finite life of an effective NFL head coach is guaranteed.
Ghost of Super Bowl Future
When the phantom image of youth comes knocking at the interview door, owners must take heed and remember that this is the deepest well to draw success from. Twenty-eight coaches have claimed a Super Bowl, twenty of those were in their first stint as a sideline general. On average, it took each champion four and a half seasons to clinch their first ring. There are currently only thirteen head coaches with more than four years tenure with their organization.
There is no guarantee that an inexperienced coach will win a title. Numerous challengers have failed in their quest for the Lombardi and are then subjected to varying degrees of patience from their franchises. The last three Pittsburgh Steelers' head coaches, spanning forty-three seasons, have each won a Super Bowl: Noll in his sixth year, Cowher in his fourteenth, Tomlin in his second. The Oakland/LA Raiders have changed coaches eleven times in twenty eight years without gaining another title. Two of their castoffs later guided other teams to the Lombardi.
There are far more failures than there are successes in the realm of first time head coaches. However, only one team gets to hoist the championship trophy each season. The fact that twenty first time head coaches own thirty-three Super Bowl titles demonstrates the franchise changing ability a quality hire can make. Whether it's a transition of power for an already dominant team (Seifert- 49ers, Switzer- Cowboys, McCafferty- Colts), or a decade long rebuilding process (Cowher- Steelers, Landry- Cowboys) every team can carve a path to Super Bowl success with an inexperienced coach.
Ghost of Super Bowl Present
Many franchises prefer experience and look to coaches who have been cast out of other organizations. Eight NFL head coaches have secured their first Super Bowl while at their second job. On average it took barely over three years for each to claim a title. Almost all of the retreads had a previous record around .500 and experienced modest post-season success before their resurgence.
Comparing the ages of the groups mentioned thus far, there is a drastic difference. By an average of five years, the first timers were younger (46 to 51). The only coach hired in his sixties that eventually won a Super Bowl, Dick Vermeil, stands out as a significant anomaly. The youngest retread, Jon Gruden, was thirty-nine upon his hire. The other six winners fell comfortably between those extremes.
Hiring a coach for a second go around can be a wise decision for a franchise. However, age does seem to matter, at least as much as previous playoff success.
Ghost of Super Bowl Past
There is one theory of coaching hires that is dead wrong. I hope you remember our lesson from the beginning. No coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. No coach has ever won a Super Bowl beyond his second stint in charge. This is vital. There will be experts who purport flawed recommendations to fans, owners, media, that a previous winner can change the fortunes of a lackluster franchise. That may be true. But it will not guarantee a Super Bowl. In fact it almost cinches a titleless tenure.
A slight caveat must be stated because Don Shula and Weeb Eubank won NFL titles with other teams in an era prior to the Super Bowl. Each coach proceeded to secure a Lomarbi trophy. The dated nature of those facts quantifies their level of relevance.
Still, there can be winning football to be enjoyed when a Super Bowl winner is at the commands (Parcelles- Patriots, Holmgren- Seahawks). However, coaching genius tends to fade when it comes time to repackage magic from a special blend of perfection to create another contender (Ditka- Saints, Johnson- Dolphins).
Age may play a factor. Intensity may also be the great separator. A coach with no rings is hungry for a title. A youthful amount of energy can lead to a spectacular amount of time dedicated to the securing of a championship. Age and victory eventually weigh down even the greatest of coaching minds.
The exact methods to the madness of coaching hires are often unknown outside the front offices of NFL franchises. It remains obvious that poor decisions are often the standard. Whether it be for lack of due diligence or lack of patience, the coaching carousel is filled each off-season. My only advice to the decision men holding interviews is a Dickens quote I'll probably re-purpose for comedy: "Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule." Lest you hire Wade Phillips... again.
This much you must remember, no NFL coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Additionally, no NFL coach has won a Super Bowl beyond his first or second coaching jobs. This fact is of equal importance. These details must be distinctly understood, or nothing informative can come of the stats I am going to relate. This is not a tale of redemption, nor a story of regained youth. The finite life of an effective NFL head coach is guaranteed.
Ghost of Super Bowl Future
When the phantom image of youth comes knocking at the interview door, owners must take heed and remember that this is the deepest well to draw success from. Twenty-eight coaches have claimed a Super Bowl, twenty of those were in their first stint as a sideline general. On average, it took each champion four and a half seasons to clinch their first ring. There are currently only thirteen head coaches with more than four years tenure with their organization.
There is no guarantee that an inexperienced coach will win a title. Numerous challengers have failed in their quest for the Lombardi and are then subjected to varying degrees of patience from their franchises. The last three Pittsburgh Steelers' head coaches, spanning forty-three seasons, have each won a Super Bowl: Noll in his sixth year, Cowher in his fourteenth, Tomlin in his second. The Oakland/LA Raiders have changed coaches eleven times in twenty eight years without gaining another title. Two of their castoffs later guided other teams to the Lombardi.
There are far more failures than there are successes in the realm of first time head coaches. However, only one team gets to hoist the championship trophy each season. The fact that twenty first time head coaches own thirty-three Super Bowl titles demonstrates the franchise changing ability a quality hire can make. Whether it's a transition of power for an already dominant team (Seifert- 49ers, Switzer- Cowboys, McCafferty- Colts), or a decade long rebuilding process (Cowher- Steelers, Landry- Cowboys) every team can carve a path to Super Bowl success with an inexperienced coach.
Ghost of Super Bowl Present
Many franchises prefer experience and look to coaches who have been cast out of other organizations. Eight NFL head coaches have secured their first Super Bowl while at their second job. On average it took barely over three years for each to claim a title. Almost all of the retreads had a previous record around .500 and experienced modest post-season success before their resurgence.
Comparing the ages of the groups mentioned thus far, there is a drastic difference. By an average of five years, the first timers were younger (46 to 51). The only coach hired in his sixties that eventually won a Super Bowl, Dick Vermeil, stands out as a significant anomaly. The youngest retread, Jon Gruden, was thirty-nine upon his hire. The other six winners fell comfortably between those extremes.
Hiring a coach for a second go around can be a wise decision for a franchise. However, age does seem to matter, at least as much as previous playoff success.
Ghost of Super Bowl Past
There is one theory of coaching hires that is dead wrong. I hope you remember our lesson from the beginning. No coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. No coach has ever won a Super Bowl beyond his second stint in charge. This is vital. There will be experts who purport flawed recommendations to fans, owners, media, that a previous winner can change the fortunes of a lackluster franchise. That may be true. But it will not guarantee a Super Bowl. In fact it almost cinches a titleless tenure.
A slight caveat must be stated because Don Shula and Weeb Eubank won NFL titles with other teams in an era prior to the Super Bowl. Each coach proceeded to secure a Lomarbi trophy. The dated nature of those facts quantifies their level of relevance.
Still, there can be winning football to be enjoyed when a Super Bowl winner is at the commands (Parcelles- Patriots, Holmgren- Seahawks). However, coaching genius tends to fade when it comes time to repackage magic from a special blend of perfection to create another contender (Ditka- Saints, Johnson- Dolphins).
Age may play a factor. Intensity may also be the great separator. A coach with no rings is hungry for a title. A youthful amount of energy can lead to a spectacular amount of time dedicated to the securing of a championship. Age and victory eventually weigh down even the greatest of coaching minds.
The exact methods to the madness of coaching hires are often unknown outside the front offices of NFL franchises. It remains obvious that poor decisions are often the standard. Whether it be for lack of due diligence or lack of patience, the coaching carousel is filled each off-season. My only advice to the decision men holding interviews is a Dickens quote I'll probably re-purpose for comedy: "Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule." Lest you hire Wade Phillips... again.
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