The Case For Sitting: Volume 2 - Their Time Is Gonna Come
The resolutely uninspiring battle between Sam Bradford and John Skelton, described in Volume 1, may not have been the proper example of young quarterbacks being handed the reigns of their franchise. However, Bradford's matchup vs Colt McCoy last weekend was the yin to the Rivers vs Rodgers matchup's yang. 373 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT combined. Far from the ferocious passing attack the two rivals shared in college. A simple explanation for the underwhelming numbers would be that any quarterback on two terrible teams would suffer the same tragic fate. But the simple explanation fails to explain Cam Newton's success.
This year's top draft choice, Newton, plays for an equally awful football team as the Rams or Browns. Yet he is averaging 331 total yards and two touchdowns per game. Bradford, last year's number 1, managed only 223 total yards and barely over a touchdown per game in his rookie season. McCoy, a third rounder, totaled only 214 yards and just under a touchdown during an average start his rookie year. Cross state opponent and division rival, Andy Dalton, has only mustered 210 total yards but has already topped McCoy's debut season touchdown total.
Dalton and Newton have already gained the confidence of their respective franchises. But how long will the honeymoon last? Bradford, for many reasons out of his control (1,2,3), has regressed this season. McCoy has shown improvement, but you can't gauge it by his team's record. How long a leash will any young quarterback have with unstable struggling franchises? Cam Newton was Carolina's second quarterback taken in the top rounds of the draft in as many years. Cleveland's last potential franchise quarterback was traded after only twelve starts. How have other number one draft pick quarterbacks fared?
From 2000-2010
-28 quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the NFL draft.
-12 are currently starting for the team that drafted them.
-16 are still starting in the NFL (counting Carson Palmer but not Jason Campbell, one wouldn't be starting if not for the other)
- 5 are out of the NFL
- 9 have been to a Pro Bowl
- 3 have won a Super Bowl
- 9 have won a playoff game
- 6 have been to a Pro Bowl and won a playoff game
Are you keeping score at home? If you're a franchise who spends a first round pick on a quarterback you have a 32% chance that he'll win a playoff game in the next eleven seasons. There is also a 32% chance he'll go to the pro bowl. There's a 21% chance he'll do both.
How long did those six pro-bowl/playoff winning quarterbacks sit in waiting before hearing their names over pre-game introductions? Five started in their first season. Only one, Matt Ryan, owned the job after training camp. Ben Roethlisberger took over due to injury. Eli Manning and Jay Cutler posted losing records in their combined twelve games. Michael Vick started the final two games for a lost Falcons season. Aaron Rodgers waited, with surprising patience, for three years.
Bradford, Newton and Dalton have followed the Matt Ryan path. Their franchises spent the pick on them, they were going to play. For Matt Ryan, and the Atlanta Falcons, there were immediate dividends. Atlanta reached the playoffs his first season. Dalton, the second rounder, has a chance for a similar feat. McCoy wasn't a first round pick, but so far his career has been similar to Eli Manning's or Jay Cutler's beginning. John Skelton, a late rounder, took the proverbial test drive last season. Much like Michael Vick in 2001. The difference being that Vick was guaranteed to own the car when he turned of age.
Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers could be anomalies. They sat because their franchises didn't have a reason to rush them. When it was time for them to start, their teams were ready for them. Success came quickly. However, things came together nicely for first year starters Roethlisberger and Ryan. In the next volume we'll look at the road the all-time great quarterbacks took.
This year's top draft choice, Newton, plays for an equally awful football team as the Rams or Browns. Yet he is averaging 331 total yards and two touchdowns per game. Bradford, last year's number 1, managed only 223 total yards and barely over a touchdown per game in his rookie season. McCoy, a third rounder, totaled only 214 yards and just under a touchdown during an average start his rookie year. Cross state opponent and division rival, Andy Dalton, has only mustered 210 total yards but has already topped McCoy's debut season touchdown total.
Dalton and Newton have already gained the confidence of their respective franchises. But how long will the honeymoon last? Bradford, for many reasons out of his control (1,2,3), has regressed this season. McCoy has shown improvement, but you can't gauge it by his team's record. How long a leash will any young quarterback have with unstable struggling franchises? Cam Newton was Carolina's second quarterback taken in the top rounds of the draft in as many years. Cleveland's last potential franchise quarterback was traded after only twelve starts. How have other number one draft pick quarterbacks fared?
From 2000-2010
-28 quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the NFL draft.
-12 are currently starting for the team that drafted them.
-16 are still starting in the NFL (counting Carson Palmer but not Jason Campbell, one wouldn't be starting if not for the other)
- 5 are out of the NFL
- 9 have been to a Pro Bowl
- 3 have won a Super Bowl
- 9 have won a playoff game
- 6 have been to a Pro Bowl and won a playoff game
Are you keeping score at home? If you're a franchise who spends a first round pick on a quarterback you have a 32% chance that he'll win a playoff game in the next eleven seasons. There is also a 32% chance he'll go to the pro bowl. There's a 21% chance he'll do both.
How long did those six pro-bowl/playoff winning quarterbacks sit in waiting before hearing their names over pre-game introductions? Five started in their first season. Only one, Matt Ryan, owned the job after training camp. Ben Roethlisberger took over due to injury. Eli Manning and Jay Cutler posted losing records in their combined twelve games. Michael Vick started the final two games for a lost Falcons season. Aaron Rodgers waited, with surprising patience, for three years.
Bradford, Newton and Dalton have followed the Matt Ryan path. Their franchises spent the pick on them, they were going to play. For Matt Ryan, and the Atlanta Falcons, there were immediate dividends. Atlanta reached the playoffs his first season. Dalton, the second rounder, has a chance for a similar feat. McCoy wasn't a first round pick, but so far his career has been similar to Eli Manning's or Jay Cutler's beginning. John Skelton, a late rounder, took the proverbial test drive last season. Much like Michael Vick in 2001. The difference being that Vick was guaranteed to own the car when he turned of age.
Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers could be anomalies. They sat because their franchises didn't have a reason to rush them. When it was time for them to start, their teams were ready for them. Success came quickly. However, things came together nicely for first year starters Roethlisberger and Ryan. In the next volume we'll look at the road the all-time great quarterbacks took.
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