1. Matt Kemp

The only argument that you could make to refute his MVP is that the Dodgers finished in 3rd.  But they were competitive, and they finished above .500.  He won a Gold Glove to go with finishing in the top 3 in all Triple Crown categories; plus Runs Scored, Stolen Bases, Total Bases, Slugging Pct, Extra Base Hits, and Intentional Walks.  He also topped a bunch of sabermetric categories like WAR, Offensive WAR, and Runs Created.  Those probably count for something, at least in Keith Law's book.

2. Ryan Braun

If you feel that the MVP must go to a playoff team, I present to you Ryan Braun.  He bests Kemp in Batting Average, Slugging Pct, OBPS, and Extra Base Hits.  Additionally his team actually won a division. Which should matter a little.  However, Kemp's season was a little too good all around to argue semantics over playoff teams.

3. Clayton Kershaw

Another Dodger, how did they not make the playoffs?  Look, I only thought of him because he showed up 3rd on the WAR rankings.  But then I compared him against some other MVP candidates.  Jose Reyes and Joey Votto were tops in Batting Average and On-Base Pct, that's about it.  There's really no hitter other than Kemp of Braun who dominates the offensive leader boards.  But Kershaw is the pitcher who owns traditional and sabermetric categories.  He's got a pitching triple crown with: 21 Wins, 2.35 ERA, and 248 Strikeouts.  He's the first pitcher listed in WAR and 2nd in WAR for Pitchers.  How? I don't know this sabermetric stuff is like QB ratings.  I do know that 21 wins is 26% of his teams victories.  That defines valuable.

1. Clayton Kershaw

Everything I just said. He also tops WHIP, Hits per 9, and Situational Wins Saved.  He is the total package in terms of traditional and sabermetric measures.  Plus, the Dodgers probably don't win 70 games without him.

2. Roy Halladay

2nd in ERA, 3rd in Wins, 3rd in Strikeouts.  The best pitcher on the best staff in baseball.  Threw 8 complete games.  Pitched 1 out more than Kershaw.   Tops WAR for Pitchers but trails Kershaw in WAR.  Again, no idea.  He does trail significantly in Strikeouts per 9 Innings.  That will probably cost him the Cy Young.  That and losing Game 5 of the NLDS.  You know that would have sealed the deal for him, regardless if it was "supposed to count".

3. Cliff Lee

Virtually identical to Halladay.  It's really not fair that one team gets to have them both.  Another pitcher who beats Halladay in WAR, but not in WAR for Pitchers. Essentially in top 3 of every category with Kershaw and Halladay.  However, he just doesn't own the amount of important numbers like Kershaw.  Pitching Triple Crown = Cy Young.  That's it.  It's simple.

(I think this is the toughest to decide)

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Jose Batista

I could be talked out of this.  But here's the thing, to me this is a two man race in terms of hitters.  Cabrera is 1st in Batting Average and On-Base Pct.  Batista is 1st in Home Runs, Slugging Pct, and OBPS.  It's a wash with the lesser sabermetric categories.  With WAR, Batista kills Cabrera. The Kemp Braun debate is almost the same.  But to me, Kemp clearly dominated the season.  I think these 2 are a wash.  Thus is my problem with the devout sabermathematicians (sp?).  If 2 candidates for an award are close enough that we're measuring a hypothetical category, than maybe we should watch the games.  Everyone watched Miguel Cabrera lead the Tigers to a division title despite being 8 games back in May.  They opened September by winning 12 straight to put the division away.  His big stats: .344, 30 HR, 105 RBI.  Are they that much different than: .302, 43 HR, 103 RBI?  If Batista is 1.4 wins better than Cabrera, but those 1.4 wins don't help him win anything, is that value?

3. Justin Verlander

You could probably just re-read the Kershaw description.  Verlander's numbers are more impressive because it's the American league.  But I'm not sure that makes him an MVP.  Taking away half his wins, or all of his WAR, wouldn't have cost the Tigers the division.  I'm not sure this is the type of season where the Cy Young winner needs to win the MVP.

1. Justin Verlander

2. CC Sabathia

For all the hype Verlander got in the middle of the season, the end numbers don't blow away the competition.  Even though the Detroit ace won the pitching triple crown, I bet Sabathia makes it closer than anyone thinks.  East Coast bias?  Maybe.  Sabathia misses a lot of bats, as the sabermathematicians say.  Translation: he strikes people out.  Even though he pales in comparison to Verlander and Weaver in almost every other non-traditional category, swinging and missing will get him votes.  I've said it before, but sabermetrics is an excuse to inflate the wages of strikeout pitchers.

3. James Shields

11 Complete Games.  4 Shutouts.  Top 3 in K's, Innings Pitched, ERA.  My dark horse candidate.