Is Peyton That Bad In The Playoffs? (v. 2011)
Much like last year, we've arrived late to the party. We never posted the annual results for the familiar question asked one Monday every post-season, is Peyton Manning really that bad in the playoffs? We also forgot to rate the college conferences or do anything about baseball season. Overall a complete meltdown on our part.
We are back with a vengeance though. We're working on a multi-part piece about the benefits of sitting young quarterbacks. But we need a reference point for the greats and our go-to comparison hasn't been updated. So just like in 2009 and 2010, we've taken a look at the all-time great quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era, and some of Peyton Manning's elite contemporaries to determine how the most successful of Archie's brood stacks up.
One minor change this season (and of course we mean for the numbers of the 2010-11 season). Drew Brees now has 7 playoff games of experience so he will be replacing Jake Delhomme. Brad Johnson remains for now, in addition to winning a Super Bowl he's the only player on the list to take three teams to the playoffs. Eventually Rivers and Rodgers will accumulate enough wins to sub in. Unless Peyton never plays again, thus negating any need to call either a contemporary. (Of course the 2012 version, which we promise to do in a timely manner this off season, will keep Manning at a constant)
PLAYOFF WINNING PERCENTAGE
(In games as starting quarterback)
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Terry Bradshaw: 74% (19 games)
Tom Brady: 73.6% (19 games)
Troy Aikman: 73.3% (15 games)
Joe Montana: 69% (23 games)
Roger Staubach: 66% (18 games)
John Elway: 63% (22 games)
Brett Favre: 54% (24 games)
Steve Young: 53% (15 games)
Jim Kelly: 52% (17 games)
Peyton Manning: 47% (19 games)
Dan Marino: 44% (18 games)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 76% (13 games)
Tom Brady: 73% (19 games)
Kurt Warner: 69% (13 games)
Drew Brees: 57% (7 games)
Eli Manning: 57% (7 games)
Brad Johnson: 57% (7 games)
Donovan McNabb: 56% (16 games)
Brett Favre: 54% (24 games)
Steve McNair: 50% (10 games)
Peyton Manning: 47% (19 games)
Matt Hasselbeck: 45% (11 games)
The first category was pretty straight forward. Total playoff winning percentage. Peyton dropped a bit. Drew Brees fit in the same slot as Delhomme. In the next category we look at the difference between regular season completion percentage and post-season completion percentage. The theory is, if a team is successful during the regular season with a certain amount of completions, they will need to maintain close to that amount to make a playoff run.
COMPLETION % DIFFERENTIAL, SEASON TO PLAYOFFS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Terry Bradshaw: +5.3% (51.9-57.2%)
Troy Aikman: +2.2% (61.5-63.7%)
Joe Montana: +0.1% (63.2-63.3%)
Jim Kelly: -1.0% (60.1-59.1%)
Tom Brady: -1.2% (63.6-62.2%)
Brett Favre: -1.2% (62.0-60.8%)
Peyton Manning: -1.8% (64.9-63.1%)
Steve Young: -2.3% (64.3-62.0%)
John Elway: -2.3% (56.9-54.6%)
Roger Staubach: -2.4% (57.0-54.6%)
Dan Marino: -3.4% (59.4-56.0%)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Drew Brees: +1.1% (65.2-66.3%)
Kurt Warner: +1.0% (65.5-66.5%)
Eli Manning: +0.6% (57.9-58.5%)
Donovan McNabb: +0.1% (58.9-59.0%)
Steve McNair: -0.6% (60.1-59.5%)
Tom Brady: -1.2% (63.6-62.2%)
Brett Favre: -1.2% (62.0-60.8%)
Matt Hasselbeck: -1.7% (60.1-58.4%)
Peyton Manning: -1.8% (64.9-63.1%)
Ben Roethlisberger: -1.8% (63.0-61.2%)
Brad Johnson: -5.9% (61.7-55.8%)
Eli dropped thanks to a better regular season. Brees stepped up to the top with an almost eerie comparison to Kurt Warner. Overall not many changes here. A slight improvement from Matt Hasselbeck. Next is the difference between TD/INT ratio between regular and post-season. We are looking for improvements or detriments to the quarterback play that could be affecting the team.
TD/INT RATIO DIFFERENTIAL FROM SEASON TO PLAYOFFS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Troy Aikman: +.24 (1.41, 24/17)
Joe Montana: +.18 (2.14, 45/21)
Terry Bradshaw: +.15 (1.15, 30/26)
John Elway: -.04 (1.28, 27/21)
Brett Favre: -.06 (1.47, 44/30)
Roger Staubach: -.19 (1.21, 23/19)
Dan Marino: -.33 (1.33, 32/24)
Peyton Manning: -.49 (1.52, 29/19)
Steve Young: -.63 (1.53, 20/13)
Jim Kelly: -.64 (0.71, 20/28)
Tom Brady: -.66 (1.87, 30/16)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Drew Brees: +5.7 (7.50, 15/2)
Matt Hasselbeck: +.63 (2.00, 18/9)
Kurt Warner: +.58 (2.21, 31/14)
Brett Favre: -.06 (1.47, 44/30)
Eli Manning: -.28 (1.14, 8/7)
Ben Roethlisberger: -.45 (1.18, 19/16)
Peyton Manning: -.49 (1.52, 29/19)
Donovan McNabb: -.59 (1.41, 24/17)
Tom Brady: -.66 (1.87, 30/16)
Brad Johnson: -.78 (0.58, 7/12)
Steve McNair: -.92 (0.54, 6/11)
Tom Brady falls a ton in this category. His playoff numbers are almost the same as before. But his team has become more dependent on his fabulous regular season play. If he can't maintain the ridiculous standards he sets in the first 16 games, his team doesn't win in the playoffs. Below we take a look at the winning percentage for quarterbacks on the road in the playoffs.
ROAD PLAYOFF GAME WINNING PERCENTAGE (games started)
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Roger Staubach: 80% (5 games)
Tom Brady: 60% (5 games)
John Elway: 50% (6 games)
Terry Bradshaw: 40% (5 games)
Brett Favre: 30% (10 games)
Joe Montana: 29% (7 games)
Peyton Manning: 29% (7 games)
Jim Kelly: 25% (4 games)
Troy Aikman: 20% (5 games)
Dan Marino: 14% (7 games)
Steve Young: 0% (3 games)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 100% (3 games)
Eli Manning: 75% (4 games)
Tom Brady: 60% (5 games)
Steve McNair: 60% (5 games)
Donovan McNabb: 43% (7 games)
Kurt Warner: 33% (3 games)
Brett Favre: 30% (10 games)
Peyton Manning: 29% (7 games)
Brad Johnson: 25% (4 games)
Drew Brees: 0% (2 games)
Matt Hasselbeck: 0% (4 games)
Another category with very little change from last season. Removing Delhomme for Brees actually benefited every contemporary QB except for Roethlisberger. It's always interesting to note how tougher winning on the road was for the hall of famers in the "Greats" grouping. Finally we'll look at how often a quarterback was able to take his playoff team to the Super Bowl.
PERCENTAGE OF LEADING PLAYOFF TEAM TO SUPER BOWL
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Roger Staubach: 57% (7 postseasons)
Tom Brady: 50% (8 postseasons)
John Elway: 50% (10 postseasons)
Jim Kelly: 50% (8 postseasons)
Terry Bradshaw: 44% (9 postseasons)
Troy Aikman: 42% 7 postseasons)
Joe Montana: 36% (11 postseasons)
Peyton Manning: 18% (11 postseasons)
Steve Young: 17% (6 postseasons)
Brett Favre: 17% (12 postseasons)
Dan Marino: 10% (10 postseasons)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 60% (5 postseasons)
Kurt Warner: 60% (5 postseasons)
Tom Brady: 50% (8 postseasons)
Eli Manning: 25% (4 postseasons)
Brad Johnson: 25% (4 postseasons)
Drew Brees: 25% (4 postseasons)
Steve McNair: 20% (5 postseasons)
Peyton Manning: 18% (11 postseasons)
Brett Favre: 17% (12 postseasons)
Matt Hasselbeck: 17% (6 postseasons)
Donovan McNabb: 14% (7 postseasons)
Let's look at the final verdict. We used the same categories as 2009 and 2010: Playoff Winning%, Playoff Completion%, Completion% Differetial, Playoff TD/INT, TD/INT Differential, Road Win %, and the % that QB took Playoff team to Super Bowl. Each category was scored 10-0. We then tallied up the total for each player.
TOTALS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
1. Joe Montana: 52 (4 SB - 4 Rings)
2. Tom Brady: 49 (4 SB - 3 Rings)
-. Troy Aikman: 49 (3 SB - 3 Rings)
4. Terry Bradshaw: 45 (4 SB - 4 Rings)
5. John Elway: 36 (5 SB - 2 Rings)
6. Roger Staubach: 35 (4 SB - 2 Rings)
-. Brett Favre: 35 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
8. Peyton Manning: 31 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
9. Jim Kelly: 26 (4 SB - 0 Rings)
10. Steve Young: 24 (1 SB - 1 Ring)
11. Dan Marino: 11 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
1. Kurt Warner: 59 (3 SB - 1 Ring)
2. Drew Brees: 54 (1 SB - 1 Ring)
3. Ben Roethlisberger: 46 (3 SB - 2 Rings)
-. Tom Brady: 46 (4 SB - 3 Rings)
5. Eli Manning: 41 (1 SB - 1 Rings)
6. Brett Favre: 31 (2 SB - 1 Rings)
7. Peyton Manning: 27 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
-. Donovan McNabb: 27 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
9. Matt Hasselbeck: 24 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
-. Steve McNair: 24 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
11. Brad Johnson: 18 (1 SB -1 Rings)
There is no change in the top spots from last year. As always, the quarterbacks who have been to the most Super Bowls, and for the most part won them, are at the top of the rankings. It is surprising to see Brees jump to the top 2 in the contemporary category. His playoff stats are just that amazing. Plus he is one of the few quarterbacks on either list to quarterback for multiple teams in the post-season: Johnson, Favre, Warner, McNair, Montana.
To answer our main question, Peyton is in the middle of the pack with his peers, and still ranks above Marino, Young and Kelly among the all-time greats. Nothing has changed for him since 2009-10. And of course that was a significant improvement from our first rankings in 2008-09.
It will be interesting to see if his contemporaries improve or not this upcoming off-season. With Peyton out for a while, and his legacy at a constant, will Brady climb back up the all-time ladder? Will Roethlisberger make us think about expanding the greats next season? Will a new quarterback, Rivers or Rodgers, shake up the rankings like Brees did this season?
We'll find out in February.
We are back with a vengeance though. We're working on a multi-part piece about the benefits of sitting young quarterbacks. But we need a reference point for the greats and our go-to comparison hasn't been updated. So just like in 2009 and 2010, we've taken a look at the all-time great quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era, and some of Peyton Manning's elite contemporaries to determine how the most successful of Archie's brood stacks up.
One minor change this season (and of course we mean for the numbers of the 2010-11 season). Drew Brees now has 7 playoff games of experience so he will be replacing Jake Delhomme. Brad Johnson remains for now, in addition to winning a Super Bowl he's the only player on the list to take three teams to the playoffs. Eventually Rivers and Rodgers will accumulate enough wins to sub in. Unless Peyton never plays again, thus negating any need to call either a contemporary. (Of course the 2012 version, which we promise to do in a timely manner this off season, will keep Manning at a constant)
PLAYOFF WINNING PERCENTAGE
(In games as starting quarterback)
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Terry Bradshaw: 74% (19 games)
Tom Brady: 73.6% (19 games)
Troy Aikman: 73.3% (15 games)
Joe Montana: 69% (23 games)
Roger Staubach: 66% (18 games)
John Elway: 63% (22 games)
Brett Favre: 54% (24 games)
Steve Young: 53% (15 games)
Jim Kelly: 52% (17 games)
Peyton Manning: 47% (19 games)
Dan Marino: 44% (18 games)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 76% (13 games)
Tom Brady: 73% (19 games)
Kurt Warner: 69% (13 games)
Drew Brees: 57% (7 games)
Eli Manning: 57% (7 games)
Brad Johnson: 57% (7 games)
Donovan McNabb: 56% (16 games)
Brett Favre: 54% (24 games)
Steve McNair: 50% (10 games)
Peyton Manning: 47% (19 games)
Matt Hasselbeck: 45% (11 games)
The first category was pretty straight forward. Total playoff winning percentage. Peyton dropped a bit. Drew Brees fit in the same slot as Delhomme. In the next category we look at the difference between regular season completion percentage and post-season completion percentage. The theory is, if a team is successful during the regular season with a certain amount of completions, they will need to maintain close to that amount to make a playoff run.
COMPLETION % DIFFERENTIAL, SEASON TO PLAYOFFS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Terry Bradshaw: +5.3% (51.9-57.2%)
Troy Aikman: +2.2% (61.5-63.7%)
Joe Montana: +0.1% (63.2-63.3%)
Jim Kelly: -1.0% (60.1-59.1%)
Tom Brady: -1.2% (63.6-62.2%)
Brett Favre: -1.2% (62.0-60.8%)
Peyton Manning: -1.8% (64.9-63.1%)
Steve Young: -2.3% (64.3-62.0%)
John Elway: -2.3% (56.9-54.6%)
Roger Staubach: -2.4% (57.0-54.6%)
Dan Marino: -3.4% (59.4-56.0%)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Drew Brees: +1.1% (65.2-66.3%)
Kurt Warner: +1.0% (65.5-66.5%)
Eli Manning: +0.6% (57.9-58.5%)
Donovan McNabb: +0.1% (58.9-59.0%)
Steve McNair: -0.6% (60.1-59.5%)
Tom Brady: -1.2% (63.6-62.2%)
Brett Favre: -1.2% (62.0-60.8%)
Matt Hasselbeck: -1.7% (60.1-58.4%)
Peyton Manning: -1.8% (64.9-63.1%)
Ben Roethlisberger: -1.8% (63.0-61.2%)
Brad Johnson: -5.9% (61.7-55.8%)
Eli dropped thanks to a better regular season. Brees stepped up to the top with an almost eerie comparison to Kurt Warner. Overall not many changes here. A slight improvement from Matt Hasselbeck. Next is the difference between TD/INT ratio between regular and post-season. We are looking for improvements or detriments to the quarterback play that could be affecting the team.
TD/INT RATIO DIFFERENTIAL FROM SEASON TO PLAYOFFS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Troy Aikman: +.24 (1.41, 24/17)
Joe Montana: +.18 (2.14, 45/21)
Terry Bradshaw: +.15 (1.15, 30/26)
John Elway: -.04 (1.28, 27/21)
Brett Favre: -.06 (1.47, 44/30)
Roger Staubach: -.19 (1.21, 23/19)
Dan Marino: -.33 (1.33, 32/24)
Peyton Manning: -.49 (1.52, 29/19)
Steve Young: -.63 (1.53, 20/13)
Jim Kelly: -.64 (0.71, 20/28)
Tom Brady: -.66 (1.87, 30/16)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Drew Brees: +5.7 (7.50, 15/2)
Matt Hasselbeck: +.63 (2.00, 18/9)
Kurt Warner: +.58 (2.21, 31/14)
Brett Favre: -.06 (1.47, 44/30)
Eli Manning: -.28 (1.14, 8/7)
Ben Roethlisberger: -.45 (1.18, 19/16)
Peyton Manning: -.49 (1.52, 29/19)
Donovan McNabb: -.59 (1.41, 24/17)
Tom Brady: -.66 (1.87, 30/16)
Brad Johnson: -.78 (0.58, 7/12)
Steve McNair: -.92 (0.54, 6/11)
Tom Brady falls a ton in this category. His playoff numbers are almost the same as before. But his team has become more dependent on his fabulous regular season play. If he can't maintain the ridiculous standards he sets in the first 16 games, his team doesn't win in the playoffs. Below we take a look at the winning percentage for quarterbacks on the road in the playoffs.
ROAD PLAYOFF GAME WINNING PERCENTAGE (games started)
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Roger Staubach: 80% (5 games)
Tom Brady: 60% (5 games)
John Elway: 50% (6 games)
Terry Bradshaw: 40% (5 games)
Brett Favre: 30% (10 games)
Joe Montana: 29% (7 games)
Peyton Manning: 29% (7 games)
Jim Kelly: 25% (4 games)
Troy Aikman: 20% (5 games)
Dan Marino: 14% (7 games)
Steve Young: 0% (3 games)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 100% (3 games)
Eli Manning: 75% (4 games)
Tom Brady: 60% (5 games)
Steve McNair: 60% (5 games)
Donovan McNabb: 43% (7 games)
Kurt Warner: 33% (3 games)
Brett Favre: 30% (10 games)
Peyton Manning: 29% (7 games)
Brad Johnson: 25% (4 games)
Drew Brees: 0% (2 games)
Matt Hasselbeck: 0% (4 games)
Another category with very little change from last season. Removing Delhomme for Brees actually benefited every contemporary QB except for Roethlisberger. It's always interesting to note how tougher winning on the road was for the hall of famers in the "Greats" grouping. Finally we'll look at how often a quarterback was able to take his playoff team to the Super Bowl.
PERCENTAGE OF LEADING PLAYOFF TEAM TO SUPER BOWL
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
Roger Staubach: 57% (7 postseasons)
Tom Brady: 50% (8 postseasons)
John Elway: 50% (10 postseasons)
Jim Kelly: 50% (8 postseasons)
Terry Bradshaw: 44% (9 postseasons)
Troy Aikman: 42% 7 postseasons)
Joe Montana: 36% (11 postseasons)
Peyton Manning: 18% (11 postseasons)
Steve Young: 17% (6 postseasons)
Brett Favre: 17% (12 postseasons)
Dan Marino: 10% (10 postseasons)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
Ben Roethlisberger: 60% (5 postseasons)
Kurt Warner: 60% (5 postseasons)
Tom Brady: 50% (8 postseasons)
Eli Manning: 25% (4 postseasons)
Brad Johnson: 25% (4 postseasons)
Drew Brees: 25% (4 postseasons)
Steve McNair: 20% (5 postseasons)
Peyton Manning: 18% (11 postseasons)
Brett Favre: 17% (12 postseasons)
Matt Hasselbeck: 17% (6 postseasons)
Donovan McNabb: 14% (7 postseasons)
Let's look at the final verdict. We used the same categories as 2009 and 2010: Playoff Winning%, Playoff Completion%, Completion% Differetial, Playoff TD/INT, TD/INT Differential, Road Win %, and the % that QB took Playoff team to Super Bowl. Each category was scored 10-0. We then tallied up the total for each player.
TOTALS
Greats of Super Bowl Era (minimum 15 starts)
1. Joe Montana: 52 (4 SB - 4 Rings)
2. Tom Brady: 49 (4 SB - 3 Rings)
-. Troy Aikman: 49 (3 SB - 3 Rings)
4. Terry Bradshaw: 45 (4 SB - 4 Rings)
5. John Elway: 36 (5 SB - 2 Rings)
6. Roger Staubach: 35 (4 SB - 2 Rings)
-. Brett Favre: 35 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
8. Peyton Manning: 31 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
9. Jim Kelly: 26 (4 SB - 0 Rings)
10. Steve Young: 24 (1 SB - 1 Ring)
11. Dan Marino: 11 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
Peyton vs Contemporaries (minimum 7 starts)
1. Kurt Warner: 59 (3 SB - 1 Ring)
2. Drew Brees: 54 (1 SB - 1 Ring)
3. Ben Roethlisberger: 46 (3 SB - 2 Rings)
-. Tom Brady: 46 (4 SB - 3 Rings)
5. Eli Manning: 41 (1 SB - 1 Rings)
6. Brett Favre: 31 (2 SB - 1 Rings)
7. Peyton Manning: 27 (2 SB - 1 Ring)
-. Donovan McNabb: 27 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
9. Matt Hasselbeck: 24 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
-. Steve McNair: 24 (1 SB - 0 Rings)
11. Brad Johnson: 18 (1 SB -1 Rings)
There is no change in the top spots from last year. As always, the quarterbacks who have been to the most Super Bowls, and for the most part won them, are at the top of the rankings. It is surprising to see Brees jump to the top 2 in the contemporary category. His playoff stats are just that amazing. Plus he is one of the few quarterbacks on either list to quarterback for multiple teams in the post-season: Johnson, Favre, Warner, McNair, Montana.
To answer our main question, Peyton is in the middle of the pack with his peers, and still ranks above Marino, Young and Kelly among the all-time greats. Nothing has changed for him since 2009-10. And of course that was a significant improvement from our first rankings in 2008-09.
It will be interesting to see if his contemporaries improve or not this upcoming off-season. With Peyton out for a while, and his legacy at a constant, will Brady climb back up the all-time ladder? Will Roethlisberger make us think about expanding the greats next season? Will a new quarterback, Rivers or Rodgers, shake up the rankings like Brees did this season?
We'll find out in February.
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