The Case For Sitting: Volume 1 - Good Duels, Bad Duels
This past Sunday, the late NFL game featured a dynamic offensive duel between two of the best passers around: Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers. In a 45-38 battle, the two quarterbacks combined for 632 yards passing and 8 touchdowns. Meanwhile three hundred and fifty miles away, two NFL sophomores were struggling to help their teams' convert third downs. While the arial assault was ongoing in San Diego, Sam Bradford and John Skelton battled mediocrity against middling defenses. Skelton, the fifth round pick who was starting as an injury replacement, tossed the game's only touchdown pass. His rival, former number one pick Sam Bradford, was sacked four times and intercepted once.
Rivers and Rodgers were both first round draft picks, but in their second seasons neither started a football game. Green Bay's starter wouldn't take an opening snap until week one of his fourth season. Yet in his three full seasons as starter he has won a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl MVP, and a Pro Bowl selection. Rivers has snagged three Pro Bowl selections in his first five full seasons as starter. Combined, the two stars have won 67% of their games. In the five years they spent on the bench their teams were able to win just 57% of the time. The paradoxical question that follows is, if Rivers and Rodgers started as rookies would their teams have won more games? Or would they have risked ruining the careers of the future NFL passing elite?
The situation is different in St Louis, and to a lesser extent Arizona, than it was for Green Bay and San Diego a few years back. Rodgers fell to The Packers late in the first round of the draft. They were in need of a future replacement for Brett Favre, so having Rodgers to understudy was a logical move. The Chargers were growing impatient with a young Drew Brees. Their acquisition of Rivers was as much of a long term maneuver as it was a challenge to their under performing starter. Whatever the reasons for their draft selections, neither San Diego or Green Bay needed to rush their young investments.
The Rams organization felt the need to expose their rookie last season. And the gamble paid off against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. Bradford started all sixteen games, completed 60% of his passes, threw for 18 touchdowns and improved St Louis's record by six wins. This year has not been as kind to Sam. In six starts he hasn't won a game. His completion percentage has dropped five points, and he's found the end zone just three times. Could his regression be due to a new offensive coordinator, a shortened pre-season, or a tougher schedule? Last year through eight games the Rams were 4-4 and their opponents' winning percentage was a mere 41%. With their opponents showing a significant increase in winning percentage (excluding Rams games of course) to 55%, the Rams have floundered to a 1-7 opening.
Assuming the Rams don't believe veteran A.J. Feeley gives their team a chance to win now, the organization could feel the need to play Bradford to expedite his learning process. However, the damage their starter is taking should be a concern for the Rams long term plans. In his first eight games last year Bradford was sacked a total of 17 times. Thus far in 2011 he has taken 25 sacks in his six starts and suffered a high ankle sprain. Former number one pick David Carr is the cautionary tale the Rams should examine. He averaged 3.37 sacks per game his first two seasons. Bradford's numbers as a rookie were better and his career sack total is significantly less, but will continued struggles lead to a stunted development?
The Cardinals risked far less with Skelton in both the last two seasons. As a fifth round pick he was guaranteed less opportunity to be the future of the organization. They could let him audition for the starting role and not worry about any poor habits he developed or injuries sustained. After four starts last season, Arizona decided to secure the services of another QB and move Skelton to a backup role. Not that Skelton possesses the pedigree of either Rivers or Rodgers, but perhaps his time in second string exile will lead to his future success for another NFL club. The same road was traveled by late round picks Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassell and Matt Hasselbeck.
At the end of last season the St Louis Rams looked like they had pulled off the rare feat in the NFL. They had developed a rookie quarterback into an instant star. Bradford's numbers topped all other rookies in history. It would have seemed foolish to suggest he would regress. This season two quarterbacks have achieved success in their rookie season as signal caller: Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Will they prove to be a greater success than Rivers or Rodgers? Or will they regress like Bradford? We'll look at the history of sitting vs starting in Volume 2.
Rivers and Rodgers were both first round draft picks, but in their second seasons neither started a football game. Green Bay's starter wouldn't take an opening snap until week one of his fourth season. Yet in his three full seasons as starter he has won a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl MVP, and a Pro Bowl selection. Rivers has snagged three Pro Bowl selections in his first five full seasons as starter. Combined, the two stars have won 67% of their games. In the five years they spent on the bench their teams were able to win just 57% of the time. The paradoxical question that follows is, if Rivers and Rodgers started as rookies would their teams have won more games? Or would they have risked ruining the careers of the future NFL passing elite?
The situation is different in St Louis, and to a lesser extent Arizona, than it was for Green Bay and San Diego a few years back. Rodgers fell to The Packers late in the first round of the draft. They were in need of a future replacement for Brett Favre, so having Rodgers to understudy was a logical move. The Chargers were growing impatient with a young Drew Brees. Their acquisition of Rivers was as much of a long term maneuver as it was a challenge to their under performing starter. Whatever the reasons for their draft selections, neither San Diego or Green Bay needed to rush their young investments.
The Rams organization felt the need to expose their rookie last season. And the gamble paid off against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. Bradford started all sixteen games, completed 60% of his passes, threw for 18 touchdowns and improved St Louis's record by six wins. This year has not been as kind to Sam. In six starts he hasn't won a game. His completion percentage has dropped five points, and he's found the end zone just three times. Could his regression be due to a new offensive coordinator, a shortened pre-season, or a tougher schedule? Last year through eight games the Rams were 4-4 and their opponents' winning percentage was a mere 41%. With their opponents showing a significant increase in winning percentage (excluding Rams games of course) to 55%, the Rams have floundered to a 1-7 opening.
Assuming the Rams don't believe veteran A.J. Feeley gives their team a chance to win now, the organization could feel the need to play Bradford to expedite his learning process. However, the damage their starter is taking should be a concern for the Rams long term plans. In his first eight games last year Bradford was sacked a total of 17 times. Thus far in 2011 he has taken 25 sacks in his six starts and suffered a high ankle sprain. Former number one pick David Carr is the cautionary tale the Rams should examine. He averaged 3.37 sacks per game his first two seasons. Bradford's numbers as a rookie were better and his career sack total is significantly less, but will continued struggles lead to a stunted development?
The Cardinals risked far less with Skelton in both the last two seasons. As a fifth round pick he was guaranteed less opportunity to be the future of the organization. They could let him audition for the starting role and not worry about any poor habits he developed or injuries sustained. After four starts last season, Arizona decided to secure the services of another QB and move Skelton to a backup role. Not that Skelton possesses the pedigree of either Rivers or Rodgers, but perhaps his time in second string exile will lead to his future success for another NFL club. The same road was traveled by late round picks Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassell and Matt Hasselbeck.
At the end of last season the St Louis Rams looked like they had pulled off the rare feat in the NFL. They had developed a rookie quarterback into an instant star. Bradford's numbers topped all other rookies in history. It would have seemed foolish to suggest he would regress. This season two quarterbacks have achieved success in their rookie season as signal caller: Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Will they prove to be a greater success than Rivers or Rodgers? Or will they regress like Bradford? We'll look at the history of sitting vs starting in Volume 2.
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