Deadlines, Dumptrucks, and Dual Market Inflation
The 11:00am deadline has passed. At any moment the world will cease spinning, volcanic eruptions will devastate the landscape, earthquakes will open pavement swallowing fault-lines, and a Silent Hill -ish fog will envelop major cities. Or at least St. Louis. A wounded John Mozeliak will proceed forth stumbling blindly through the foggy, broken streets as he battles horrifyingly misshapen general managers, screeching journalists, and the sword-wielding pyramid-headed Dan Lozano.

Shit! This negotiation is going to suck.
Or perhaps we're being a tad dramatic. Maybe the universe of Cardinals baseball will not end. Possibly it will never reach the tragic proportions of a Roland Emmerich film . The Earth may continue its rotation. St. Louis will not implode. There will be a 2011 MLB season. Which is more than anyone can guarantee for the NFL.
So instead of wandering through the streets violently attacking illusions of mutated demons, the Cardinals general manager will have to evaluate his options:
1. Park the dump truck full of money at Pujols's door. 10 years - $300 Million
Why not? As the omniscient voice living in a cornfield once told Crash Davis, "if you give him the money after the deadline, he will come." Or something to that effect. If you think in five years, or even three years, that Pujols will still be the highest paid player in baseball you are ignorant of the simple economic principle of inflation. Sure the US is hovering at about 2% right now, but that's not calculated correctly. We're closer to 10%, and it's going to rise. Maybe not this year, but it will happen. Remember that federal deficit? By the end of this deal $30 million could equal $15 million. That's an exaggeration... hopefully. Regardless, the Yankees and Red Sox are the standard bearers in baseball. They create another type of inflation within their own marketplace. And though they may not be buying this upcoming off-season, they will be when their current 1st basemen's contracts expire. That will be long before ten years is up. Somebody will be grossly overpaid, but it will undoubtedly never be Albert.
2. Let the market determine the price
This seems to be the direction he's headed. It seems risky to St Louis fans, but with the Yankees and Red Sox out of the market, plus the Dodgers and Mets handicapped by ineptitude, there aren't many serious buyers in place this off-season. The Angels are a threat because they have built a strong organization. But who else is left? The Rangers and Nationals? The Cubs? Perhaps an organization will throw the years and the money at Albert, but nobody will present a comfortable winning situation to go along with the cash. After he and his agent make that discovery, 7-8 years with the Cardinals will seem outstanding.
Participation in the "President's Race" is mandatory for Washington players
3. Trade him
Sacrilege. We know. But getting nothing of value for the best player of the game is just bad business. Everything will seem like a trade down. There is no denying that. But in terms of business you can't focus strictly on the players involved in the deal. The guaranteed years and wages of trade pieces balance out any gap in talent. It's team building. Baseball is not a one man sport and the Cardinals have shown they have voids. Upgrading 2-3 pieces in exchange for 1? Do the Red Sox miss Nomar? Are the Giants missing Bonds?
Those are the three rational options. I'm sure there's a fourth option where Pujols gets dredging rights to the Mississippi, unlimited carriage rides on the Landing, a Groupon for lifetime yoga lessons, three shares of Google, and the rights to live in the Arch after the mayor moves out (the St. Louis mayor lives in the Arch right?). However, that's probably not practical. Have you seen what Google's trading at?

Shit! This negotiation is going to suck.
Or perhaps we're being a tad dramatic. Maybe the universe of Cardinals baseball will not end. Possibly it will never reach the tragic proportions of a Roland Emmerich film . The Earth may continue its rotation. St. Louis will not implode. There will be a 2011 MLB season. Which is more than anyone can guarantee for the NFL.
So instead of wandering through the streets violently attacking illusions of mutated demons, the Cardinals general manager will have to evaluate his options:
1. Park the dump truck full of money at Pujols's door. 10 years - $300 Million
Why not? As the omniscient voice living in a cornfield once told Crash Davis, "if you give him the money after the deadline, he will come." Or something to that effect. If you think in five years, or even three years, that Pujols will still be the highest paid player in baseball you are ignorant of the simple economic principle of inflation. Sure the US is hovering at about 2% right now, but that's not calculated correctly. We're closer to 10%, and it's going to rise. Maybe not this year, but it will happen. Remember that federal deficit? By the end of this deal $30 million could equal $15 million. That's an exaggeration... hopefully. Regardless, the Yankees and Red Sox are the standard bearers in baseball. They create another type of inflation within their own marketplace. And though they may not be buying this upcoming off-season, they will be when their current 1st basemen's contracts expire. That will be long before ten years is up. Somebody will be grossly overpaid, but it will undoubtedly never be Albert.
2. Let the market determine the price
This seems to be the direction he's headed. It seems risky to St Louis fans, but with the Yankees and Red Sox out of the market, plus the Dodgers and Mets handicapped by ineptitude, there aren't many serious buyers in place this off-season. The Angels are a threat because they have built a strong organization. But who else is left? The Rangers and Nationals? The Cubs? Perhaps an organization will throw the years and the money at Albert, but nobody will present a comfortable winning situation to go along with the cash. After he and his agent make that discovery, 7-8 years with the Cardinals will seem outstanding.
Participation in the "President's Race" is mandatory for Washington players
3. Trade him
Sacrilege. We know. But getting nothing of value for the best player of the game is just bad business. Everything will seem like a trade down. There is no denying that. But in terms of business you can't focus strictly on the players involved in the deal. The guaranteed years and wages of trade pieces balance out any gap in talent. It's team building. Baseball is not a one man sport and the Cardinals have shown they have voids. Upgrading 2-3 pieces in exchange for 1? Do the Red Sox miss Nomar? Are the Giants missing Bonds?
Those are the three rational options. I'm sure there's a fourth option where Pujols gets dredging rights to the Mississippi, unlimited carriage rides on the Landing, a Groupon for lifetime yoga lessons, three shares of Google, and the rights to live in the Arch after the mayor moves out (the St. Louis mayor lives in the Arch right?). However, that's probably not practical. Have you seen what Google's trading at?




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